📅 Market Calendar — Feb 2, 2026 – Feb 6, 2026

This is a full 5-day trading week, but the U.S. data tape is complicated by shutdown-related delays at BLS. Expect higher sensitivity to: (1) ISM prints, (2) central bank decisions (RBA/BoE/ECB), and (3) mega-cap earnings guidance (GOOGL/AMZN).

• Mon–Fri: 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET (8:30 a.m.–3:00 p.m. CT).

Earnings timing sources: company IR pages / exchange calendars. If you’re trading short-dated options, confirm the final timestamp on issuer IR the day prior.

Monday’s ISM Manufacturing sets the growth/price tone into a midweek stack: RBA (Tue), ADP + ISM Services (Wed), and BoE/ECB (Thu). The usual Friday jobs-report anchor is disrupted: BLS has indicated that key releases are delayed during the ongoing partial shutdown. That can increase headline-driven volatility and widen bid/ask around “expected” release windows.

*Times note: BoE publications are set for 12:00 London; ECB “decision + press conference” is typically early afternoon CET. Confirm on official calendars.

• Base case: ISM + central banks dominate index direction; mega-cap guidance drives factor dispersion (quality vs. cyclicals, duration vs. value).
• Volatility controls: Keep convexity defined into Tue/Wed earnings (AMD/GOOGL/QCOM) and Thu policy stack (BoE/ECB + claims).
• Data caveat: Treat “expected” Friday payroll window as a headline-risk zone due to BLS delays; watch for surprise rescheduling.
• Cross-asset tells: USD + real yields remain the quickest read on “risk-on” durability; oil reacts to Middle East/Venezuela headlines.

Cross-asset conditions matter as much as the headline calendar this week. Monitor the rates complex, USD, and energy/industrial inputs as tariffs and geopolitical risk filter into prices.

• USD strength can compress risk appetite and pressure commodities/EM; a softer USD often lifts cyclicals and metals.
• BoE/ECB can move global term premia (and by extension, U.S. duration equities) even without Fed action.

• Oil: sensitive to Iran headlines and Venezuela operational risk; watch crack spreads and shipping/insurance headlines.
• Industrial inputs: tariffs can reprice raw materials quickly; prices-paid components in ISM are a key cross-check.

• BLS delay risk: Key labor releases (including the jobs report) are delayed during the partial shutdown; treat scheduled windows as headline-risk zones.
• Market implication: In the absence of payrolls, the market can overweight ISM, claims, and earnings guidance—often amplifying swings.

• Iran / Gulf: Tehran signaled it is examining diplomacy with the U.S., while Washington has increased regional posture and warned it may use force if talks fail—an oil- and shipping-sensitive setup.
• Greenland / Arctic: The Trump administration has continued to press its goal of controlling Greenland; Danish/European leaders have pushed back, framing the issue as sovereignty and transatlantic stability.
• China / Taiwan Strait: China’s military said it monitored U.S. vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait in mid‑January, underscoring persistent flashpoint risk for defense and semis.
• Venezuela: The U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and subsequent actions targeting Venezuelan oil exports keep Latin America risk elevated; Russia has condemned the U.S. move.

• Europe: European officials have signaled “red lines” on Greenland sovereignty even as they seek to keep trade channels open; markets watch for retaliatory steps if tariff threats broaden.
• Canada: Ottawa is caught between U.S. tariff threats and potential trade arrangements with China; tariff headlines are already feeding into cost pressures and export softness in Canadian data.
• U.S. macro feedback loop: Tariff-driven input cost pressure is showing up in U.S. manufacturing pricing components—raising the odds of higher-for-longer rates if sustained.

• Volatility + flows: Mega-cap earnings can force systematic repositioning; expect factor rotations around GOOGL/AMZN.
• Defined risk: Use spreads/collars to manage event-driven gap risk rather than naked exposure into clustered catalysts.

• Rates remain the fulcrum: ISM + claims + BoE/ECB can reset front-end pricing, especially with payrolls delayed.
• Earnings breadth is high: DIS/PEP/PFE/LLY provide consumer/healthcare reads; AMD/GOOGL/AMZN steer AI/duration narratives.
• Geopolitics is not background noise: Iran, Greenland, Taiwan Strait, and Venezuela headlines can move oil, defense, and shipping risk premia.
• Operational note: Confirm schedule changes on official calendars; rescheduling surprises can dominate thin liquidity windows.