📅 Market Calendar — Feb 16, 2026 – Feb 20, 2026

This is a 4-day U.S. trading week with Presidents Day (Mon Feb 16) market closure. The macro tape clusters mid-to-late week: Empire/NAHB on Tue, a heavy Wed with housing starts/permits, durable goods, industrial production and FOMC minutes, then Thu jobless claims + trade + pending home sales. Friday is the main event with a stacked GDP (advance) + core PCE/income & spending release at 8:30a, followed by flash PMIs and housing/sentiment updates.

• Mon Feb 16: Markets closed (Presidents Day).
• Tue–Fri: 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET (8:30 a.m.–3:00 p.m. CT).

Earnings timing sources: company IR pages / exchange calendars. If you’re trading short-dated options, confirm the final timestamp on issuer IR the day prior.

The Presidents Day holiday makes this a 4-day U.S. trading week, but the macro tape is heavy from Tue onward. Watch regional manufacturing + housing sentiment (Tue), a stacked housing/durables/production day with FOMC minutes (Wed), then claims + trade + pending home sales (Thu). Friday concentrates the biggest market movers: advance Q4 GDP and core PCE / personal income & spending at 8:30a, plus flash PMIs later in the morning.

*Times note: BoE publications are set for 12:00 London; ECB “decision + press conference” is typically early afternoon CET. Confirm on official calendars.

• Base case: The rates complex is set by rescheduled payrolls (Wed) and CPI (Fri); dispersion comes from sector-specific earnings guidance (consumer, healthcare, networking/AI, utilities, travel/crypto).
• Volatility controls: Keep convexity defined into Wed 2:00p ET (FOMC minutes) and Fri 8:30a ET (GDP/PCE); consider smaller size into clustered catalysts.
• Data caveat: Official calendars note shutdown-driven timing changes—monitor revised release-date announcements and expect liquidity gaps around “expected” windows.
• Cross-asset tells: Real yields + USD are the quickest read on risk appetite; watch gold leverage into NEM/AU and energy beta into OXY/TRGP.

Cross-asset conditions matter as much as the headline calendar this week. Monitor the rates complex, USD, and energy/industrial inputs as tariffs and geopolitical risk filter into prices.

• USD strength can compress risk appetite and pressure commodities/EM; a softer USD often lifts cyclicals and metals.
• Global data(Japan GDP/CPI, UK CPI, and global flash PMIs) can move term premia and FX—and spill back into U.S. duration equities.

• Oil: sensitive to Iran headlines and Venezuela operational risk; watch crack spreads and shipping/insurance headlines.
• Industrial inputs: tariffs can reprice raw materials quickly; CPI components and survey price gauges are a key cross-check.

• Shutdown/reschedule risk:Multiple high-impact releases were pushed back after the late-2025 shutdown; confirm final timestamps for GDP/PCE, trade, housing, and manufacturing data on official calendars before trading event risk.
• Market implication: With rescheduled releases, the market can overweight retail sales, claims, and earnings guidance—often amplifying swings.

• Iran / Gulf: Tehran signaled it is examining diplomacy with the U.S., while Washington has increased regional posture and warned it may use force if talks fail—an oil- and shipping-sensitive setup.
• Greenland / Arctic: The Trump administration has continued to press its goal of controlling Greenland; Danish/European leaders have pushed back, framing the issue as sovereignty and transatlantic stability.
• China / Taiwan Strait: China’s military said it monitored U.S. vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait in mid‑January, underscoring persistent flashpoint risk for defense and semis.
• Venezuela: The U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and subsequent actions targeting Venezuelan oil exports keep Latin America risk elevated; Russia has condemned the U.S. move.

• Europe: European officials have signaled “red lines” on Greenland sovereignty even as they seek to keep trade channels open; markets watch for retaliatory steps if tariff threats broaden.
• Canada: Ottawa is caught between U.S. tariff threats and potential trade arrangements with China; tariff headlines are already feeding into cost pressures and export softness in Canadian data.
• U.S. macro feedback loop: Tariff-driven input cost pressure can show up in inflation prints and survey pricing components—raising the odds of higher-for-longer rates if sustained.

• Volatility + flows: High-beta earnings + heavy macro can force systematic repositioning; watch rotations around PANW/CDNS and WMT into Friday’s GDP/PCE risk.
• Defined risk: Use spreads/collars to manage event-driven gap risk rather than naked exposure into clustered catalysts.

• Rates remain the fulcrum: FOMC minutes (Wed) and the Friday GDP/PCE prints can reset front-end pricing and term premia.
• Earnings breadth is high: WMT anchors the consumer read; MDT/ADI/MCO for healthcare + semis/credit; PANW/CDNS for enterprise tech; BKNG/DASH for travel/delivery; SO/TRGP/OXY for defensives/energy; and NEM/AU for gold leverage.
• Geopolitics is not background noise: Ongoing tariff headlines and major flashpoints (Iran, Greenland, Taiwan Strait, Venezuela) can move oil, defense, shipping, and rates risk premia.
• Operational note: Confirm schedule changes on official calendars; rescheduling surprises can dominate thin liquidity windows.